Urban Growth and Loss of Agricultural Land on the Fringes of Benin City, Edo State

Benin City, the capital of Edo State and a historically significant urban centre in Nigeria's South South geopolitical zone, is experiencing rapid peripheral expansion that is consuming high-quality agricultural and forest land on its urban fringe at rates that raise serious concerns about long-term food production capacity and ecological services. This study examines urban growth and agricultural land conversion on the fringes of Benin City across the period 2011 to 2023, focusing on Ikpoba Okha, Ovia North East, and Orhionmwon local government areas. Multi-temporal Landsat 8 imagery was classified using a random forest algorithm in Google Earth Engine, achieving an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Post-classification change detection matrices were computed to quantify land cover transitions, with particular attention to the conversion of agricultural land and forest to residential and commercial uses. GIS-based urban growth modelling was used to project future land consumption under a business-as-usual scenario to 2035 assuming continuation of observed growth rates. Results confirm that Benin City's built-up footprint expanded by 62 percent over the study period, converting approximately 28,000 hectares of mixed farmland, rubber plantations, and secondary forest. The highest conversion rates are recorded along the Benin-Asaba Expressway and Benin-Sapele Road corridors. The projection model suggests that an additional 18,000 hectares of agricultural land could be converted by 2035 without policy intervention. Recommendations include urban growth boundaries, agricultural land protection legislation, and compact city planning incentives. Keywords: urban growth, agricultural land loss, Benin City, Edo State, South South Nigeria.