Wildlife Population Dynamics and Habitat Quality Assessment in Borgu Sector of Kainji Lake National Park

Understanding the interplay between wildlife population dynamics and habitat quality is fundamental to adaptive management in Nigeria's savanna national parks, where ungulate populations have fluctuated significantly over the past two decades. This study assesses population trends, age structure, sex ratios, and habitat quality parameters for four focal ungulate species (Kob, Roan antelope, Hartebeest, and Waterbuck) in the Borgu Sector of Kainji Lake National Park. Distance sampling on forty vehicle transects was conducted in both wet and dry seasons to estimate population densities and generate five-year population trend indices. Habitat quality was assessed through vegetation biomass estimation, water availability mapping, and fire history analysis across classified habitat units. Structural equation modelling linked habitat quality variables to population density estimates across survey units. Population density estimates indicate significant declines in roan antelope and hartebeest over the five-year baseline period, while kob showed relative stability. Fire frequency was the strongest negative predictor of ungulate density in woodland habitat units, mediated through grass biomass suppression. Dry season water point availability was the strongest positive predictor of kob density in open grassland units. Poaching incidence data from ranger records showed a positive correlation with ungulate density decline in the park's southern sectors. The study recommends a revised fire management protocol, rehabilitation of dry season water points, and intensified anti-poaching patrols in identified decline hotspots as priority adaptive management actions. Keywords: wildlife population dynamics, habitat quality, Kainji National Park, ungulates, adaptive management