Youth Political Participation and Electoral Outcomes in South-West Nigeria: An Empirical Assessment

This study empirically assesses the relationship between youth political participation levels and electoral outcomes in South West Nigeria, examining whether higher youth voter registration, turnout, and candidacy rates produce measurably different electoral results compared to constituencies with lower youth engagement. Nigeria's population is disproportionately young, and the mobilisation of youth political participation has been a major theme of civil society campaigns, yet the electoral impact of youth engagement remains empirically underexplored. Using a quantitative research design, the study constructs a dataset combining Independent National Electoral Commission ward-level data on voter registration by age cohort, actual turnout by ward, and candidate age profiles for the 2023 governorship and state assembly elections in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, and Osun states. Logistic regression and correlation analysis are applied to assess relationships between youth participation metrics and electoral outcomes including candidate age profiles of winners and the policy platform content of winning campaigns. The political generation theory and the electoral mobilisation framework are applied as the analytical lens. Findings reveal a positive correlation between high youth registration rates and the electoral success of younger candidates, particularly in urban constituencies, though the relationship is moderated by party brand strength and incumbent advantage. The #NotTooYoungToRun advocacy campaign of 2018 appears to have had a lasting positive effect on youth candidacy rates in the 2023 cycle. Recommendations include further legal reforms to reduce financial barriers to candidacy for young Nigerians and structured political youth leadership development programmes. Keywords: youth political participation, electoral outcomes, South West Nigeria, electoral mobilisation, candidacy