Actuarial Forecasting of Nigeria’s Working-Age Population and Labour Force Insurance Demand to 2040

This study develops actuarial population forecasts for Nigeria's working-age population and derives projections of labour force insurance demand across key product lines to the year 2040. Nigeria's demographic trajectory, characterized by a young and rapidly growing population, presents significant long-term opportunities for life, health, and pension insurance market development. Actuarial population modelling provides a rigorous framework for translating demographic projections into insurance demand estimates, supporting strategic planning by insurers, pension administrators, and regulators. This study uses the cohort-component population projection method applied to baseline demographic data from the 2018 National Demographic and Health Survey and the 2023 National Population Commission projections. Age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions are calibrated by geopolitical zone. Insurance demand projections by product line are derived using current penetration rates applied to projected working-age population counts under low, medium, and high demographic growth scenarios. Findings project that Nigeria's working-age population will grow from approximately 100 million in 2024 to between 145 and 170 million by 2040, creating a substantial potential market for pension, group life, and health insurance products. The North West and North Central zones will contribute the largest incremental working-age population. The study concludes that Nigeria's demographic dividend creates an exceptional insurance market growth opportunity if penetration barriers are addressed proactively. It recommends that NAICOM develop a 15-year insurance market development strategy aligned with demographic projections.

Keywords: population forecasting, insurance demand, demographic dividend, actuarial projection, Nigeria 2040.