Macro-Environmental Turbulence, Adaptive Governance, and Resilience of Nigerian Manufacturing Firms: An Integrated System Dynamics Approach

This study develops and empirically tests an integrated system dynamics model of macro-environmental turbulence, adaptive governance, and organisational resilience in Nigerian manufacturing firms, filling a critical methodological gap in the management literature on how organisations maintain resilience under compounding, non-linear environmental pressures. Nigerian manufacturers face concurrent turbulence across currency volatility, energy infrastructure unreliability, regulatory unpredictability, and security disruptions, creating system-level complexity that linear regression methodologies inadequately capture. This research employs a mixed-methods system dynamics approach, combining stock-and-flow modelling calibrated with longitudinal time-series data from 55 manufacturing firms across Ogun (South West), Kano (North West), and Aba (South East) over fifteen years, with qualitative causal loop diagramming informed by 72 executive interviews. The system dynamics model identifies five feedback loops governing the turbulence-resilience dynamic, including adaptive governance quality as the central regulating variable that determines whether turbulence amplifies into firm failure or drives capability development. Simulation experiments reveal counter-intuitive findings including a resilience trap dynamic where moderate turbulence creates governance complacency that increases vulnerability to subsequent shocks. The study makes original contributions to management cybernetics, system dynamics methodology in strategy research, and the empirical literature on manufacturing resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa, generating practically-grounded strategic guidelines for resilience-building under conditions of persistent macro-environmental turbulence. Keywords: macro-environmental turbulence, adaptive governance, organisational resilience, system dynamics, Nigerian manufacturing.