State Capacity and the Management of Ethnic Conflict in Plateau State

This study empirically analyses the relationship between state administrative capacity and the management of ethnic conflict in Plateau State, a recurrently conflict-affected state in Nigeria's North Central geopolitical zone. Plateau State has experienced some of Nigeria's deadliest ethnic and inter-communal violence over the past two decades, and this study examines how variations in state administrative capacity at both state and local government levels influence conflict management outcomes. A mixed-methods design is used, combining quantitative analysis of conflict incident data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project with qualitative case analysis of three conflict management interventions in Jos North, Barkin Ladi, and Riyom local government areas. Regression analysis and process tracing serve as analytical tools. The State Capacity Theory by Skocpol and the Conflict Management and Prevention Framework provide the theoretical anchors. Findings establish that local government areas with stronger administrative capacity, reflected in functional conflict early warning systems, trained peace committees, and active inter-ethnic dialogue mechanisms, recorded significantly lower conflict recurrence rates. Gaps in conflict early warning infrastructure, inadequate funding for state-level mediation activities, and political manipulation of ethnic grievances by elected officials are identified as systemic governance failures. Recommendations include the establishment of a Plateau State Conflict Prevention and Management Authority with statutory funding and cross-party governance. Keywords: state capacity, ethnic conflict, conflict management, Plateau State, peace-building.