Administrative Decentralisation and Local Governance Quality in North East Nigerian States

This study empirically evaluates the effects of administrative decentralisation on local governance quality in the North East geopolitical zone, encompassing Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe States. The zone presents a particularly challenging context for analysing decentralisation, given the combined pressures of insurgency, poverty, and administrative capacity deficits. A multi-state comparative panel design is employed, drawing on local governance quality data from the National Bureau of Statistics Local Government Surveys and independent civil society assessments from 2019 to 2023. Administrative decentralisation is measured using a composite index covering fiscal devolution, personnel authority, and programmatic decision-making. Fixed effects panel regression and synthetic control analysis provide the estimation strategy. The Fiscal Federalism Theory and the New Institutional Economics Framework provide the theoretical anchors. Findings reveal a non-linear relationship between administrative decentralisation and governance quality: moderate levels of decentralisation are associated with governance improvements, while high decentralisation without corresponding capacity building leads to governance deterioration, particularly in security-affected local government areas. States that implemented decentralisation alongside structured local government capacity programmes recorded the most consistent governance improvements. The study contributes an empirically original non-linearity finding to the decentralisation-governance literature in fragile sub-national contexts. Keywords: administrative decentralisation, local governance, North East Nigeria, capacity building, federalism.