Statistical Analysis of Malnutrition Programme Outcome Data for UNICEF Nigeria Nutrition Interventions in Sokoto State

Rigorous statistical evaluation of nutrition programme outcomes is essential for demonstrating programme effectiveness, guiding resource allocation, and reporting to international donors including UNICEF for nutrition interventions in emergency-affected northern Nigerian states. This study statistically analyses outcome data from the UNICEF-supported Community Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) programme in Sokoto State, North West Nigeria, covering 2021 to 2023. Programme monitoring data for 3,400 children under five enrolled in CMAM therapeutic feeding centres were analysed. Statistical indicators including programme cure rate, defaulter rate, and mortality rate were computed per WHO Sphere Standards benchmarks. Mixed effects logistic regression modelled cure probability, accounting for clustering by health facility. Kaplan-Meier curves characterised time-to-discharge by admission severity and age group. Programme cure rate was 82.3 percent, exceeding the 75 percent Sphere minimum standard. Defaulter rate was 10.7 percent, below the 15 percent acceptable threshold. Mortality rate was 2.8 percent, marginally above the 3 percent Sphere threshold. Mixed effects logistic regression identified admission mid-upper arm circumference (OR 2.9 per cm increase), age 6 to 23 months (OR 0.61, protective), and health facility distance above 10 km (OR 0.42, detrimental) as significant cure predictors. Median time to discharge was 42 days. The study provides UNICEF Nigeria with rigorous statistical programme evaluation evidence and recommends enhanced defaulter tracking in remote CMAM sites. Keywords: malnutrition programme evaluation, CMAM, Sokoto State, mixed effects regression, UNICEF Nigeria