Determinants of Informal Settlement Location and Growth in Abuja’s Satellite Towns: An Empirical Investigation

Understanding the location determinants of informal settlement growth is essential for designing interventions that address root causes rather than symptoms of urban informality. This study empirically investigates the spatial and socioeconomic determinants of informal settlement location and growth in Abuja's satellite towns, focusing on Nyanya, Karu, and Kubwa. Using a combination of satellite imagery change detection from 2016 to 2023, spatial econometric modelling, and a household survey of 420 informal settlement residents, the study identifies the influence of proximity to formal employment centers, road access, land price gradients, and planning enforcement capacity on informal settlement location decisions. A hedonic location choice model is estimated to determine the relative weight of identified determinants. Qualitative data from 45 in-depth interviews with long-term settlement residents examine migration histories, land acquisition processes, and experiences of planning authority interactions. Findings are expected to demonstrate that proximity to the Nyanya-Mararaba transport corridor and informal land market accessibility are dominant location factors, while planning enforcement capacity has limited deterrent effect. The study identifies a research gap in the literature regarding the specific role of customary land market intermediaries in shaping settlement location in the Abuja peri-urban context. Recommendations address targeted land supply interventions in high-demand corridors, formal land market alternatives for low-income households, and planning capacity investments in satellite town authorities to improve early-stage development control. Keywords: Informal settlements, Location determinants, Abuja, Satellite towns, Spatial econometrics.