Urban Agglomeration, Economic Productivity, and Planning Policy in the Lagos-Ogun Industrial Corridor

Urban agglomeration economies have been theorized as drivers of productivity growth through knowledge spillovers, labour market pooling, and input sharing, but their spatial planning implications in Nigerian industrial corridors remain under-analyzed. This study empirically examines the relationship between urban agglomeration intensity and economic productivity in the Lagos-Ogun Industrial Corridor, focusing on industrial clusters in Ikeja, Sagamu, Ikorodu, and Ota. Using a quasi-experimental panel data design, establishment-level productivity data from the National Bureau of Statistics Annual Survey of Manufacturing are combined with GIS-derived agglomeration measures including employment density, industry proximity indices, and connectivity scores for 2017 to 2022. Regression analysis estimates agglomeration elasticities for manufacturing productivity, distinguishing localization from urbanization economy effects. Planning policy documents governing industrial land use in Lagos and Ogun states are critically evaluated in light of empirical findings. Findings are expected to demonstrate positive and significant agglomeration effects on manufacturing productivity, with stronger effects for sector-specific clusters than for diversified industrial areas, suggesting a planning rationale for targeted cluster consolidation. Recommendations address spatial planning policies that strengthen industrial clustering in the corridor, infrastructure investment in agglomeration-supporting transport and utility networks, land use policies that prevent residential encroachment on industrial zones, and regional planning coordination between Lagos and Ogun to manage corridor growth cohesively. Keywords: Urban agglomeration, Economic productivity, Industrial corridor, Lagos, Ogun.