Empirical Assessment of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and Foreign Direct Investment Flows in Nigeria’s Upstream Sector

This study empirically investigates the relationship between the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Nigeria's upstream petroleum sector. Despite widespread expectations that the PIA 2021 would catalyse investment by resolving decades of regulatory uncertainty, the actual investment response has been mixed and remains understudied using rigorous empirical methods. Drawing on panel data for FDI commitments in Nigerian upstream acreage from 2015 to 2024, obtained from NUPRC investment records, Central Bank of Nigeria balance of payments statistics, and UNCTAD investment monitoring reports, the study employs an interrupted time series analysis to isolate the PIA's effect on investment trends. Control variables include global oil prices, OPEC quota allocations, and Nigeria's Ease of Doing Business score. Preliminary findings suggest a modest improvement in FDI commitments from deepwater operators but a continued divestment trend among onshore IOCs, driven by legacy environmental liabilities and security concerns not fully resolved by the PIA. The study fills an important empirical gap in the petroleum law literature and contributes analytical evidence for post-PIA policy refinement. It recommends targeted fiscal incentives for onshore reinvestment and the acceleration of HCDT implementation as investor confidence measures. Keywords: FDI, Petroleum Industry Act, upstream sector, empirical analysis, Nigeria.