Institutional Design and Regulatory Independence in Nigeria’s Post-PIA Petroleum Governance Architecture: A Neo-Institutionalist Analysis

This study conducts a neo-institutionalist analysis of the institutional design choices embedded in the post-PIA 2021 petroleum governance architecture in Nigeria, evaluating whether the new regulatory institutions are structurally capable of achieving independence from political and industry capture over the long run. Regulatory independence is theorised as a necessary condition for effective petroleum governance, yet the PIA 2021's institutional designs reflect compromise positions shaped by political negotiation rather than optimal institutional engineering. The research employs a qualitative neo-institutionalist methodology, analysing the PIA 2021's provisions on NUPRC and NMDPRA governance, appointment procedures, budget autonomy, and enforcement powers against an original institutional independence scorecard developed from comparative analysis of regulatory bodies in Norway, UK, and Australia. This theoretical scorecard is applied to assess institutional design trajectories through documentary analysis and sixty semi-structured interviews with former DPR officials, NUPRC and NMDPRA board members, and petroleum governance academics. The study generates an original theory of regulatory independence sustainability under political economy constraints in developing country petroleum sectors. Keywords: regulatory independence, institutional design, PIA 2021, neo-institutionalism, petroleum governance.