Empirical Investigation of the Social Impact of Naira Scarcity on Household Welfare in South East Nigeria

The 2023 naira scarcity crisis, precipitated by the Central Bank of Nigeria's currency redesign policy, generated acute disruption to household welfare across Nigeria, yet systematic empirical evidence on its social impact differentiated by regional and household characteristics is limited. This study empirically investigates the social impact of naira scarcity on household welfare in Anambra and Imo States, South East Nigeria. A mixed-methods design was employed, with structured household surveys administered to 400 families in Onitsha, Awka, Owerri, and Orlu during and immediately following the scarcity peak, supplemented by eighteen in-depth interviews with affected household members. Welfare impacts were assessed across food security, healthcare access, educational continuity, and social participation dimensions using validated scale instruments. Household fixed-effects regression identified socioeconomic predictors of impact severity. Results indicate that 76% of surveyed households experienced severe food insecurity during the scarcity peak. Healthcare avoidance due to inability to pay cash for services occurred in 54% of households, with serious health consequences documented in eight interview cases. School fee payment disruptions caused temporary student absences in 41% of households with school-going children. Female-headed households, elderly-headed households, and households dependent on daily casual labor income demonstrated the most severe welfare deterioration across all dimensions. Social cohesion at community level was paradoxically strengthened in some areas through mutual support behavior. The study provides empirical evidence for differentiated vulnerability in currency policy-induced financial shocks. Keywords: naira scarcity, household welfare, social impact, South East Nigeria, economic shock.