An Empirical Analysis of Social Networks and Criminal Recidivism Among Released Prisoners in Oyo State

Social networks into which released prisoners are reabsorbed after incarceration significantly influence recidivism probability, yet the specific mechanisms through which Nigerian social network characteristics shape reoffending remain empirically underexamined. This study empirically analyzes the relationship between post-release social network composition and criminal recidivism among former inmates released from Agodi and Abolongo Prisons in Oyo State, South West Nigeria. A longitudinal panel design tracked 180 released prisoners at three, six, and twelve months post-release, using social network analysis to map network composition changes and monitoring reoffending through court records and self-report over the tracking period. Social network measures included network size, density, proportion of pro-social versus criminal contacts, and strength of family ties. Cox proportional hazard regression modelled time-to-reoffending as a function of network predictors. Results indicate that twelve-month recidivism was 34% in the sample. Each unit increase in the proportion of criminal contacts in post-release networks increased reoffending hazard by 47%. Strong family network ties reduced recidivism hazard by 39%. Network size was not a significant predictor independent of composition. Access to employment during the tracking period mediated the network-recidivism relationship significantly. Former prisoners who accessed reintegration support organisations demonstrated 28% lower recidivism than those who did not. The study provides the first longitudinal social network analysis of recidivism predictors for a Nigerian released prisoner sample, contributing empirically to both criminological theory and corrections policy. Keywords: recidivism, social networks, released prisoners, Oyo State, reintegration.