Spatial Modeling of Wildlife Distribution Under Climate Change Scenarios in Borno State Savannas

Climate change is projected to alter the distribution, abundance, and habitat suitability of wildlife species across sub-Saharan Africa through shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes. The semi-arid savannas of Borno State in Nigeria's North East geopolitical zone are particularly vulnerable to climate-driven habitat change, yet species distribution modeling under future climate scenarios has not been conducted for this region. This study applies MaxEnt species distribution modeling to project future habitat suitability for three key wildlife species, namely roan antelope, striped hyena, and West African wild dog, under two CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0) for 2050 and 2075. Current distribution data were compiled from published records, camera trap studies, and community reports. Bioclimatic variables derived from WorldClim and CHELSA databases were used as predictors. Results indicate a projected reduction in suitable habitat for all three focal species under both scenarios, with wild dog and striped hyena facing the most severe contraction, particularly in the drier northern sections of the state. Predicted habitat refugia are concentrated in gallery forest zones along river corridors. The study identifies priority areas for conservation action based on habitat persistence under both scenarios and recommends their incorporation into climate-adaptive management plans for Borno State protected areas. Keywords: species distribution modeling, climate change, Borno State, North East Nigeria, MaxEnt