Analysis of the Effect of Railway Transport Decline on Road Congestion in Lagos State

The decline of railway transportation in Nigeria over several decades has shifted an enormous volume of passenger and freight traffic onto roads, contributing directly to urban congestion and highway deterioration. This study analyses the effect of the decline of railway transport services on road congestion in Lagos State, the commercial capital of Nigeria and its most congested urban environment in the South West zone. A documentary analysis and descriptive survey design were adopted, drawing on historical Nigerian Railway Corporation operational data alongside questionnaire responses from 160 commuters, freight shippers, and transport policy analysts. The study quantifies modal shift patterns from rail to road, examines road volume-to-capacity ratios at key points, and assesses public attitudes toward a revived rail service. Findings show that the near-total cessation of railway freight services by the late 1990s displaced an estimated 8 million tonnes of cargo annually onto road corridors. Road vehicle counts at Apapa and Ikeja junctions have increased by over 200 percent in the past two decades, directly correlating with the absence of rail alternatives. Public interest in rail as a preferred commute option is high, provided reliability and affordability conditions are met. The study supports accelerated investment in the Lagos Rail Mass Transit and the rehabilitation of the Lagos-Ibadan standard gauge line as complementary interventions for decongesting road networks. Keywords: railway decline, road congestion, Lagos, modal shift, rail rehabilitation.