An Assessment of Commuter Rail Potential Along the Lagos-Badagry Corridor

The Lagos-Badagry corridor is one of the most densely travelled road routes in Nigeria, experiencing significant traffic volumes that strain existing road infrastructure and reduce travel quality for millions of commuters. This study assesses the potential for commuter rail development along this corridor as a sustainable transport alternative. A descriptive feasibility assessment design was employed, integrating travel demand surveys conducted with 250 commuters, corridor land use mapping, and analysis of the Lagos State Government's draft transport plans. The study estimates potential ridership levels, evaluates land availability for rail right-of-way, and surveys commuter willingness to shift modes under various fare and service scenarios. Findings indicate strong latent demand for a rail service, with 68 percent of surveyed commuters expressing willingness to use rail if fares are competitive with current bus costs and journey times are significantly reduced. An estimated 80,000 to 120,000 daily passengers could be served by a commuter rail service operating at minimum viable frequency levels. Land encroachment along the existing rail reserve is identified as the primary development challenge. The study recommends immediate corridor preservation through demolition of encroachments, environmental and social impact assessments, and engagement of private sector partners for infrastructure financing under a public-private partnership model. These findings provide useful baseline data for transport planners in Lagos State and contribute to modal diversification discourse. Keywords: commuter rail, Lagos-Badagry, rail feasibility, modal shift, urban transport planning.