Determinants of Public Transport Mode Choice Among Urban Commuters in Enugu Metropolis: An Empirical Analysis

Understanding the behavioural determinants of public transport mode choice is essential for designing transit systems that effectively attract and retain users. This study empirically investigates the factors determining public transport mode choice among urban commuters in Enugu Metropolis, South East Nigeria, filling a gap in the quantitative mode choice literature for medium-sized Nigerian cities. A multinomial logistic regression model is employed on primary data collected from 350 commuters through systematic random sampling at six major transport terminals. Variables tested include travel time, fare levels, comfort perceptions, security, trip purpose, and household income. The study controls for sociodemographic characteristics including gender, occupation, and residential location. Model estimates reveal that travel time reliability and personal security have the highest marginal utility effects on mode choice, with commuters demonstrating significant willingness to pay for service reliability improvements. Income modestly mediates mode choice, with higher-income commuters more likely to opt for ride-hailing over conventional buses. The study finds that the age and gender dimensions of mode choice have been under-researched in the South East context, and addresses this gap with stratified analysis. Findings challenge prevailing assumptions that affordability alone drives mode choice in Nigerian cities. The study recommends that transit planners prioritise reliability-enhancing investments and that future pricing strategies be designed to balance revenue sufficiency with social equity. These findings contribute original empirical evidence to transport demand modelling literature in sub-Saharan Africa. Keywords: mode choice, multinomial logit, public transport, Enugu, commuter behaviour.