Energy Demand Forecasting for the North Central Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria Using Regression Analysis

Accurate energy demand forecasting is fundamental to infrastructure planning, investment programming, and electricity market regulation in Nigeria, yet zone-level forecasting models that account for regional socioeconomic characteristics are not widely available. This study develops an energy demand forecast for the North Central geopolitical zone of Nigeria, covering Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, and the Federal Capital Territory, using multiple regression analysis. Historical energy consumption data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, population statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, and economic indicators from the Central Bank of Nigeria were assembled for the period 2010 to 2023. Multiple regression models were estimated with electricity consumption as the dependent variable and population, gross domestic product per capita, urbanisation rate, and electricity access rate as independent variables. Model validation was performed using out-of-sample testing for 2022 and 2023 data. Scenario forecasts are developed for 2024 to 2035 under optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic assumptions about economic growth and electrification progress. Results project total residential and commercial electricity demand in the North Central zone to reach between 18,400 and 26,700 gigawatt-hours by 2035, representing two to three times current consumption levels. The study recommends incorporation of zone-level demand forecasting into the generation and transmission expansion planning process of the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc. Keywords: energy demand forecasting, North Central Nigeria, regression analysis, electricity planning, scenario analysis.