Assessment of Compressed Natural Gas as a Transition Fuel for Commercial Transport in Lagos State

Commercial road transport in Lagos State, South West Nigeria, is predominantly fuelled by petrol and diesel, contributing significantly to urban air pollution, carbon emissions, and transport operating costs. Compressed natural gas represents a cleaner and potentially cheaper transition fuel for the commercial transport sector while Nigeria builds renewable energy capacity for electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This study assesses the technical and economic viability of compressed natural gas adoption for commercial buses and logistics vehicles in Lagos State. A survey of 150 commercial transport operators in Lagos Island, Apapa, and Badagry provided data on fuel consumption, operating costs, vehicle age profiles, and willingness to convert to compressed natural gas. Technical assessment covered conversion kit specifications for common Nigerian commercial vehicle types, compressed natural gas station infrastructure requirements, and natural gas supply logistics from existing pipeline networks. Cost modelling compared lifetime vehicle operating costs under petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas fuel scenarios. Results demonstrate fuel cost savings of 35 to 42 percent for compressed natural gas relative to diesel at current prices, with vehicle conversion payback periods of 18 to 24 months. Key barriers include the upfront conversion cost, limited refuelling infrastructure, and driver unfamiliarity with compressed natural gas vehicles. The study recommends a pilot compressed natural gas bus rapid transit corridor and a conversion loan scheme coordinated by the Lagos State Ministry of Transportation. Keywords: compressed natural gas, commercial transport, Lagos State, clean fuel, energy transition.