Quantitative Assessment of Renewable Energy Potential and Optimal Deployment Strategy for Electrifying Nigeria by 2030

Achieving universal electricity access in Nigeria by 2030 consistent with Sustainable Development Goal 7 requires a quantitatively rigorous assessment of renewable energy potential, cost-optimal deployment strategy, and investment requirements that simultaneously addresses resource availability, demand heterogeneity, grid economics, and off-grid market dynamics at national scale. This study conducts a comprehensive quantitative assessment of Nigeria's renewable energy electrification potential and develops an original cost-optimisation model for achieving universal electricity access by 2030. An integrated geospatial and techno-economic modelling framework is developed, combining satellite-derived resource assessments for solar, wind, and small hydropower, high-resolution demand estimation using population distribution data and income proxy variables, transmission network cost modelling, and mini-grid and standalone solar system cost functions. The optimisation model determines the least-cost combination of grid extension, solar mini-grid deployment, and standalone solar home system distribution for each of Nigeria's 774 local government areas, subject to reliability, affordability, and resource constraints. Original methodological contributions include a locally calibrated demand projection model validated against household survey data and a mini-grid market penetration model accounting for demand density and connection cost gradients. Results identify an optimal deployment strategy requiring 14 gigawatts of new distributed solar capacity and 8 gigawatts of grid-connected renewable energy by 2030, with a total investment requirement of 42 billion US dollars. The North West and North East zones require the largest investment relative to population but exhibit favourable solar resources that make off-grid solar the cost-optimal technology. Keywords: quantitative assessment, electrification strategy, Nigeria, SDG 7, cost optimisation.