Hydrogen Economy Development Pathways for Nigeria: Strategic Framework and Geopolitical Analysis

Nigeria's potential role in the emerging global hydrogen economy requires strategic analysis that moves beyond resource endowment mapping to address the geopolitical dimensions of hydrogen trade, the institutional prerequisites for hydrogen economy development, and the distributional implications of competing green and blue hydrogen pathways for domestic economic transformation and energy access equity. This study develops a strategic framework and geopolitical analysis of hydrogen economy development pathways for Nigeria, making original contributions to the theoretical literature on energy transition geopolitics for resource-dependent developing economies. The research applies a mixed-methods design combining strategic foresight methodology, geopolitical economy analysis, techno-economic modelling, and stakeholder engagement through expert workshops and 44 elite interviews with Nigerian energy policymakers, international oil company representatives, multilateral development finance institution officials, and renewable energy investors. Three hydrogen economy development scenarios, designated Domestic Transition Pioneer, Export-Led Industrialisation, and Hybrid Strategy, are constructed using scenario development methodology and evaluated against criteria of economic transformation potential, equity outcomes, political feasibility, and climate consistency. Techno-economic modelling establishes cost competitiveness thresholds under each scenario. Geopolitical analysis examines Nigeria's potential positioning in relation to European green hydrogen import demand, African continental hydrogen market development, and competition from North African and Southern African producers. The study's original theoretical contribution is a Resource-to-Hydrogen Transition Model for petro-states that integrates institutional transformation requirements with geopolitical market positioning strategy. Keywords: hydrogen economy, geopolitical analysis, Nigeria, energy transition strategy, green hydrogen.