Strategic Cognition and Environmental Interpretation Errors Among Nigerian CEOs: Antecedents and Performance Consequences

This dissertation examines the antecedents of strategic cognition biases and their consequences for environmental interpretation errors and firm performance among chief executive officers of Nigerian firms. Upper echelons theory posits that executive cognitive characteristics shape strategic decisions, yet its empirical examination in Sub-Saharan African leadership contexts is negligible. Upper echelons theory, cognitive strategic management, and behavioral decision theory provide the theoretical foundation. The research employs a multi-method design combining cognitive mapping techniques, structured decision scenario experiments, and longitudinal performance tracking across forty Nigerian CEOs in the financial services and manufacturing sectors. Cognitive maps were analyzed for complexity and interpretive accuracy relative to objective industry indicators. Scenarios measured information processing biases. Firm performance was tracked over three years. Findings reveal that overconfidence bias and confirmation bias are the most prevalent cognitive distortions among Nigerian CEOs, with both significantly predicting lower environmental interpretation accuracy. CEO prior crisis experience and board advisory quality significantly moderate the relationship between cognitive bias and interpretation error, providing protective factors. Interpretation errors, in turn, significantly predict below-benchmark firm performance over thirty-six months. The study makes original theoretical contributions by extending upper echelons theory to the Nigerian context with empirical evidence of culturally influenced CEO cognition patterns. Keywords: strategic cognition, upper echelons theory, environmental interpretation, CEO decision-making, Nigeria.