Contractual Allocation of Climate-Related Risks in Nigerian Infrastructure Contracts

Climate change is creating new categories of risk in Nigerian infrastructure development, including floods, extreme heat, sea level rise, and water scarcity, that existing contractual risk allocation frameworks were not designed to address. This study analyses contractual approaches to climate-related risk allocation in Nigerian infrastructure contracts, focusing on road, water, and energy projects in the South South, North East, and South West zones between 2018 and 2024. Using a doctrinal and empirical research design, the study analyses 25 infrastructure procurement contracts and conducts interviews with 20 infrastructure lawyers, 15 project finance specialists, and 10 climate risk consultants. The research evaluates how force majeure clauses, material adverse change provisions, insurance requirements, and variation mechanisms are currently used to allocate climate risks between contracting parties, and assesses whether these instruments are fit for purpose. Findings reveal that existing contractual frameworks significantly underperform in allocating climate-related risks, that force majeure clauses are rarely drafted to expressly address climate events, and that contractors in underdeveloped regions bear disproportionate climate risks without corresponding compensation. The study makes an original analytical contribution by identifying climate risk allocation as an emerging sub-field of Nigerian contract and infrastructure law. Recommendations include the development of climate risk-adjusted standard contract terms for public infrastructure, legislative guidance on climate force majeure, and mandatory climate risk disclosure in project finance documentation. Keywords: climate risk, contractual allocation, infrastructure contracts, force majeure, project finance