The Political Economy of European Union Budget Support in Nigeria: Power, Conditionality, and Reform

This doctoral study develops an original political economy analysis of European Union budget support operations in Nigeria, theorising the political and economic dynamics through which EU budget support conditions are negotiated, implemented, resisted, and instrumentalised by both EU and Nigerian state actors. Budget support, the direct transfer of EU funding to Nigeria's federal or state government budgets, represents a high-risk, high-impact modality that places EU-Nigeria governance relationships under their greatest stress. The study advances an original Contested Political Space model of budget support politics, drawing on Whitfield's political economy of aid, Booth's development effectiveness framework, and Bayart's political economy of African states. Empirical analysis draws on the complete archive of EU budget support operations in Nigeria from 2008 to 2024, obtained through EU document access and Freedom of Information requests, supplemented by 65 elite interviews with EU budget support managers, Nigerian finance ministry officials, state government financial management reform actors, and civil society public finance accountability organisations. The research employs within-case and cross-case comparative analysis to explain variation in budget support outcomes across Nigerian reform sectors, including public financial management, health, and education. Original contributions include the Contested Political Space model, a comprehensive EU-Nigeria budget support archive, and theory-grounded findings on the political economy drivers of aid effectiveness. Keywords: EU budget support, political economy, Nigeria, conditionality, public financial management.