Original Framework for Decarbonising Nigeria’s Cement Industry: Technological Pathways and Policy Instruments

This dissertation develops an original framework for decarbonising Nigeria's cement industry, integrating techno-economic analysis, policy design theory, and stakeholder consultation to provide a theoretically grounded and empirically validated roadmap for achieving substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions in Nigeria's most carbon-intensive industrial sector. Nigeria's cement industry has expanded rapidly over the past two decades, with current domestic production capacity exceeding sixty million tonnes per year, making it one of the largest single sources of industrial greenhouse gas emissions in West Africa at a time when Nigeria faces growing pressure from international climate commitments and development finance conditions. The framework development process combines bottom-up energy-material flow modelling of the Nigerian cement sector using operational data from eleven cement plants across Ogun, Oyo, Benue, Cross River, and Sokoto states, life cycle assessment of twelve identified decarbonisation technological pathways, and a system dynamics policy simulation model examining the interaction between carbon pricing, technology deployment subsidies, and industry investment behaviour over a thirty-year transition horizon. Qualitative data from fifty-three expert interviews enrich the technical analysis with strategic and institutional insights. The framework identifies a technically and economically feasible pathway to fifty-five percent emission intensity reduction by 2045 through a sequenced combination of clinker factor reduction, alternative fuel co-processing, kiln efficiency enhancement, and carbon capture readiness investments. Keywords: cement decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions, techno-economic analysis, system dynamics, Nigeria