Green Trade Policies and Export Market Access for Nigerian Agricultural Exporters: Challenges and Opportunities

This study analyses the implications of green trade policies adopted by major importing nations for the market access opportunities and compliance challenges of Nigerian agricultural exporters. The European Union's Green Deal trade agenda, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and deforestation regulation, is reshaping the conditions under which agricultural commodity exporters from developing countries can access premium European markets. Nigeria's cocoa, palm oil, and cashew export industries are particularly exposed to these new requirements. The research employs a mixed-methods design combining a quantitative analysis of Nigerian agricultural export flow data disaggregated by destination market and commodity with qualitative interviews from 30 agro-export company executives, standards compliance officers, and trade policy analysts. The theoretical framework draws on the regulatory trade barrier literature, the global value chain governance framework, and the heterogeneous firm trade theory. The study models the potential export revenue exposure arising from EU deforestation regulation non-compliance, examines the technical and financial capacity of Nigerian exporters to meet certification requirements, and analyses the extent to which green trade requirements constitute de facto non-tariff barriers. Findings are expected to reveal that while green trade compliance presents short-term market access risks, Nigerian agro-exporters who achieve certification can command premium prices and gain competitive advantage over less-compliant peers. Recommendations include government-funded sustainability certification assistance, bilateral engagement with the EU on transition period provisions, and development of a national green agro-export strategy. Keywords: green trade policy, agricultural exports, market access, EU deforestation regulation, Nigeria