Export Diversification, Dutch Disease, and Long-Run Growth in Nigeria: New Evidence Using Disaggregated Export Data

This study examines the Dutch disease hypothesis and its long-run implications for growth in Nigeria, using disaggregated export data to test whether petroleum export dominance has crowded out non-oil tradeable sector development and constrained long-run economic growth. The Dutch disease theory predicts that natural resource export booms cause real exchange rate appreciation and deindustrialisation of the non-resource export sector through spending and resource movement effects. Nigeria's experience represents a canonical case for Dutch disease analysis, yet existing empirical studies have produced inconclusive results partly due to data aggregation that masks heterogeneity across export categories. The study constructs a novel disaggregated dataset of Nigerian export performance across 22 two-digit HS code non-oil export categories from 2010 to 2023, sourced from Nigerian Customs Service and UNCTAD COMTRADE data. Dynamic panel and threshold regression models are applied to test Dutch disease transmission mechanisms and to identify the export diversification threshold at which non-oil sector development begins to significantly moderate Dutch disease effects. The theoretical framework draws on the Corden and Neary Dutch disease model, the Hausmann and Hidalgo product complexity framework, and the non-linear growth-trade nexus literature. Findings are expected to reveal sector-specific Dutch disease impacts concentrated in light manufacturing and agricultural processing while some service exports show resilience, suggesting that sector-targeted policies can partially mitigate Dutch disease transmission. Contributions advance understanding of Dutch disease heterogeneity and provide empirical grounding for Nigeria's export diversification policy design. Keywords: Dutch disease, export diversification, non-oil exports, Nigeria, panel data