Evaluating the Market Development Fund Programme of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council

This study provides a rigorous evaluation of the Market Development Fund programme administered by the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, assessing its effectiveness in supporting non-oil export growth and contributing to the diversification of Nigeria's export base. The Market Development Fund provides financial and technical assistance to Nigerian exporters for market research, trade fair participation, product certification, and export packaging improvement. Despite sustained funding commitments, the programme's actual impact on beneficiary export performance remains empirically undocumented in peer-reviewed research. The study employs a quasi-experimental evaluation design, constructing a matched comparison group of non-beneficiary exporters from the NEPC database to serve as a counterfactual for programme participants. Propensity score matching is applied to create balanced treatment and control groups based on pre-programme firm characteristics, and difference-in-differences analysis estimates the average treatment effect of programme participation on export revenue, market diversification, and export survival outcomes over a three-year post-treatment period. Primary data are supplemented by NEPC programme evaluation reports and National Bureau of Statistics export statistics. The theoretical framework draws on the export promotion effectiveness literature and the public programme evaluation methodology. Findings are expected to reveal heterogeneous programme effects, with stronger impacts for firms participating in multiple programme components rather than single interventions, suggesting complementarity effects in export promotion services. Contributions include the first quasi-experimental evaluation of this programme and methodological guidelines for evidence-based assessment of Nigerian export promotion initiatives. Recommendations address programme design improvements and monitoring and evaluation system strengthening. Keywords: export promotion, NEPC, Market Development Fund, programme evaluation, Nigeria