Structural Determinants of Logistics Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya

This dissertation identifies and analyses the structural determinants of logistics market development through a comparative study of Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya, representing three distinct logistics development trajectories in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria, despite its economic size, consistently underperforms on global logistics performance indices relative to its GDP ranking. The study seeks to explain this paradox by constructing an original structural determinants framework that integrates infrastructure endowment theory, regulatory quality theory, and market structure theory into a novel supply chain development model. Using a mixed-methods comparative design, the study combines quantitative analysis of panel logistics performance, trade, and infrastructure data over a ten-year period across the three countries, with qualitative analysis of regulatory frameworks, logistics industry structure, and policy narratives obtained through elite interviews with 45 sector leaders and policymakers. Qualitative comparative analysis and fixed-effects panel regression are employed. The dissertation introduces the concept of logistics market structural coherence as an original theoretical construct capturing the degree of alignment among infrastructure quality, regulatory governance, and competitive market structure. Findings are expected to demonstrate that Ghana's superior logistics performance relative to Nigeria is attributable primarily to regulatory coherence rather than infrastructure investment levels. Original contributions include the validated logistics market structural coherence scale, a three-country comparative logistics development typology, and a structural reform sequencing model applicable to Nigerian logistics market development. Recommendations address the Federal Ministry of Transportation, the Nigerian Shippers' Council, and multilateral development banks. Keywords: logistics market development, structural determinants, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya.