Logistics Capability Development, Environmental Turbulence, and Firm Survival in the Nigerian SME Sector: A Longitudinal Investigation

This dissertation conducts a longitudinal investigation of the relationship between logistics capability development, environmental turbulence, and firm survival in the Nigerian SME sector, drawing samples from manufacturing, trading, and agro-processing SMEs across South West, North Central, South East, and North West geopolitical zones. SME failure rates in Nigeria are among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of logistics capability as a survival determinant has been theoretically underdeveloped and empirically untested in this context. Drawing on the resource-based view, dynamic capabilities theory, and environmental turbulence literature, the dissertation develops an original Logistics Capability Survival Model proposing that logistics capability development moderates the negative relationship between environmental turbulence and SME survival probability. A longitudinal panel design tracks 310 SMEs over a three-year period across four survey waves, measuring logistics capability development, disruption exposure, and survival outcomes at each wave. Survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression is supplemented by multilevel moderated regression analysis. The dissertation introduces the Logistics Capability Survival Index, an original composite measurement instrument validated across SME sectors and geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Findings are expected to demonstrate that SMEs in the highest logistics capability development quartile exhibit survival rates 35 to 50 percent above the mean. Original contributions include the Logistics Capability Survival Model, the validated Logistics Capability Survival Index, and the first longitudinal empirical evidence on logistics capability and SME survival in a major Sub-Saharan African economy. Recommendations address the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria and commercial banks on logistics capability investment as a risk mitigation strategy. Keywords: logistics capability, environmental turbulence, SME survival, longitudinal study, Nigeria.