A Theory of Adaptive Resilience in Nigerian Maritime Port Systems Under Compound Disruption Scenarios

Nigerian maritime port systems have demonstrated both vulnerability and adaptive capacity when confronted with compound disruption scenarios including operational crises, extreme weather events, security incidents, and global supply chain shocks. This study develops an original theory of adaptive resilience specific to complex maritime port systems in developing economy contexts, grounded in the Nigerian port experience. The research employs a multiple embedded case study methodology examining the adaptive responses of the Apapa Port Complex, Tin Can Island Port, and Onne Port Complex to three distinct compound disruption events over the period 2019 to 2024, including the COVID-19 operational disruption, the Apapa gridlock crisis, and the 2022 crude oil pipeline disruption affecting Onne throughput. Data were collected through ninety-six in-depth interviews with port officials, shipping agents, freight forwarders, terminal operators, and regulatory officers, supplemented by documentary analysis of port operations records. Grounded theory analysis techniques were employed to generate substantive and formal theoretical propositions from the case data. The resulting theory proposes that adaptive resilience in Nigerian port systems is constituted by four interacting mechanisms: anticipatory sensing, distributed decision authority, redundant pathway activation, and relational repair. The theory advances the resilience engineering literature by contextualising resilience mechanisms within the specific institutional, relational, and infrastructural constraints of Nigerian port governance. Keywords: adaptive resilience, port systems, compound disruption, grounded theory, maritime governance