Development of an Original Reliability-Centred Maintenance Model for Critical Marine Systems in Nigerian Offshore Production Platforms

Reliability-centred maintenance provides a systematic methodology for determining the most effective maintenance strategies for complex engineered systems, balancing reliability requirements with resource constraints. Existing reliability-centred maintenance models developed for marine applications have limited direct applicability to the operational, supply chain, and environmental conditions characterising Nigerian offshore production platforms. This study develops an original reliability-centred maintenance model specifically adapted for critical marine systems aboard fixed offshore production platforms operating on the Nigerian continental shelf. The research employs a design science research methodology, proceeding through functional failure analysis, failure mode and effects analysis, failure mode criticality assessment, and maintenance strategy selection for the critical marine systems of two representative platforms in collaboration with operating company engineering teams. Failure data from fifteen years of production records are integrated with expert elicitation to populate failure probability distributions using Bayesian updating. The original model contribution lies in two theoretical innovations: a supply chain-adjusted maintenance interval optimisation module that accounts for the extended spare parts lead times characteristic of Nigerian offshore logistics, and an environmental severity adjustment factor that modifies failure rate inputs for the specific corrosivity of the Gulf of Guinea offshore environment. The model is validated through prospective application and comparison against actual failure outcomes over a twelve-month validation period. Keywords: reliability-centred maintenance, offshore production platforms, design science, failure mode analysis, Gulf of Guinea