A Complex Systems Analysis of Mining-Induced Poverty Traps in Mineral-Rich Communities in North Central Nigeria

Resource-dependent communities in mineral-rich regions of North Central Nigeria paradoxically exhibit persistent poverty despite the proximity of extractable wealth, a phenomenon that existing development economics frameworks have inadequately explained at the community scale. This dissertation applies complex systems theory to analyse the mechanisms sustaining mining-induced poverty traps in tin and columbite-dependent communities in Plateau and Nassarawa states. A longitudinal multi-case study was conducted in 12 communities over three years, employing agent-based modelling, social network analysis, and participatory systems mapping to identify self-reinforcing feedback loops that perpetuate poverty. Empirical data include 280 household panel survey waves, 85 life history narratives, community-level economic tracking, and administrative data on mining revenues and public expenditure. The dissertation identifies six reinforcing feedback loops that interact to sustain poverty, including mining revenue capture by extra-community elites, soil and water degradation suppressing non-mining income diversification, and educational disruption by child mining labour. An original complex adaptive systems poverty trap model is constructed and validated against longitudinal data. Counter-factual simulations demonstrate that single-intervention approaches have low probability of breaking the trap, while coordinated multi-lever interventions targeting elite capture, environmental restoration, and educational access simultaneously achieve trap escape in 68 percent of model runs. The dissertation contributes an original theoretical and methodological approach to resource-sector poverty trap analysis. Keywords: poverty trap, complex systems, mining communities, North Central Nigeria, agent-based modelling.