A Theoretical Framework for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design Under Multi-Hazard Disruption Environments in Nigeria

Supply chain resilience has attracted substantial theoretical and empirical attention globally following high-impact disruptions, yet existing frameworks inadequately address the simultaneous exposure to multiple distinct hazard types characteristic of the Nigerian operating environment, including security threats, flooding, fuel scarcity, and regulatory shocks. This dissertation develops an original theoretical framework for resilient supply chain network design under multi-hazard disruption environments, using Nigeria as a primary empirical context. A systematic review of resilience, network design, and disruption management literature grounds the framework development, identifying theoretical gaps in multi-hazard modelling and the neglect of adaptive capacity dynamics. The proposed framework integrates concepts from robust optimization, dynamic capabilities theory, and complex systems resilience to formalize the multi-hazard supply chain design problem. A two-stage robust optimization model is formulated with uncertain disruption realizations represented by a polyhedral uncertainty set parameterized to reflect the joint probability structure of multiple hazard types simultaneously. The model is applied to a case study of a fast-moving consumer goods distribution network operating across all six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Computational experiments demonstrate that the multi-hazard robust design achieves up to 34 percent lower expected post-disruption cost compared to designs optimized for single hazard types in isolation. The framework also formally characterizes the adaptive reconfiguration problem as a sequential decision process under partially observable disruption states. This dissertation makes original contributions to supply chain resilience theory, robust optimization methodology, and the empirical literature on supply chain management in sub-Saharan Africa. Keywords: supply chain resilience, multi-hazard disruption, robust optimization, network design, Nigeria