Modelling Schistosoma mansoni Transmission Dynamics in Fishing Communities in Ebonyi State, South East Nigeria

Mathematical modelling of Schistosoma mansoni transmission dynamics in high-risk fishing communities provides a quantitative framework for predicting the impact of preventive chemotherapy and WASH interventions on infection burden reduction trajectories. This study models S. mansoni transmission dynamics in fishing communities in Ebonyi State, South East Nigeria. A prospective longitudinal data collection study was conducted in five fishing communities along the Cross River tributaries in Afikpo North and Afikpo South Local Government Areas, enrolling 350 individuals across age strata. Stool samples were examined by Kato-Katz at baseline, six months, and 12 months, with age-structured egg output data used to parameterise a deterministic transmission model incorporating worm burden, mating probability, egg output, miracidial density, and snail infection prevalence. Bulinus and Biomphalaria snail population density was measured quarterly from water contact sites. Evidence from 2020 to 2024 identifies fishing communities in southeastern Nigeria as the highest-burden transmission foci, where water contact frequency, snail density, and limited WASH infrastructure combine to sustain intense transmission cycles. This study produces transmission model parameters for Ebonyi communities and simulates the impact of annual versus biannual praziquantel treatment on worm burden reduction over five years. Findings will be submitted to the WHO NTD Control Programme and published in a mathematical epidemiology journal. Keywords: Schistosoma mansoni, transmission modelling, fishing communities, Ebonyi State, preventive chemotherapy.