Original Investigation of Gravitational Wave Source Population Statistics and Detection Prospects for a Proposed West African Gravitational Wave Observatory

The detection of gravitational waves from compact binary mergers by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA network has opened a new observational window on the Universe, yet the global gravitational wave detector network has significant blind spots in sky localization coverage attributable to the absence of detectors in Africa and the Southern Hemisphere. A West African gravitational wave observatory sited in Nigeria would fill a critical network gap and provide transformative scientific benefits for source localization, parameter estimation, and multi-messenger astronomy. This research makes original contributions to the scientific case for a West African gravitational wave detector through analysis of source population statistics, detection rate forecasts, and localization improvement quantification specific to a Nigerian observatory site. A comprehensive population synthesis model for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole merger rates in the local Universe is implemented, incorporating recently updated LIGO O3 event rate measurements and metallicity-dependent stellar evolution pathways from the StarTrack code. Network sensitivity simulations including a hypothetical Nigerian detector at design sensitivity comparable to LIGO A+ are performed using the GWFish Monte Carlo framework. Results demonstrate that a Nigerian detector added to the existing network reduces median sky localization area from 38 square degrees to 11 square degrees for binary neutron star mergers, enabling electromagnetic counterpart identification for 340 percent more events per year. Optimal site selection analysis considering seismic noise characteristics derived from Nigerian Geological Survey Agency seismometer records identifies the Jos Plateau as the lowest seismic noise Nigerian site for underground detector infrastructure. The research provides the quantitative scientific foundation for a Nigerian Space Agency gravitational wave observatory proposal. Keywords: gravitational waves, detector network, compact binaries, sky localization, Nigeria