Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability on Fish Production in the Chad Basin Fisheries, Borno State

The Chad Basin fishery in Borno State, North East Nigeria, has experienced significant ecological transformation driven by climate variability, including reduced rainfall, declining lake levels, and increasing water temperatures over the past two decades. This study assesses the impact of observed climate variability on fish production patterns, species composition changes, and fisher livelihoods in the Nigerian sector of the Lake Chad fishery through a combination of fisheries monitoring data, meteorological records, and fisher surveys. Monthly catch data from five landing stations were compiled over a five-year period and correlated with seasonal rainfall anomalies and lake level records provided by the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Structured interviews were conducted with 120 fishers in Baga and Monguno fishing communities. Results showed that total annual fish landings declined by 34% over the five-year study period, broadly correlated with declining water surface area measured from MODIS satellite imagery. Deep-water species, particularly Lates niloticus and Distichodus spp., showed the most dramatic declines. Fishers reported increased fishing effort to maintain previous catch volumes, a pattern consistent with overfishing pressure compounding climate-driven habitat loss. Livelihood diversification into farming and petty trading has increased among fishing households. The study provides evidence linking climate variability to fisheries decline in the Borno State sector of the Chad Basin and recommends the integration of climate adaptation measures into the Lake Chad Basin Commission's fisheries management protocols.

Keywords: climate variability, Lake Chad, fisheries decline, Borno State, livelihoods