Developing an Original Complexity-Informed Theory of Strategic Management Practice in Nigerian Public Sector Organisations

Strategic management in Nigerian public sector organisations occurs within a context of complexity, political interference, institutional fragility, and resource unpredictability that renders standard strategic planning models empirically inadequate, and developing an original complexity-informed theory provides both scholarly and policy contributions. This study develops an original Complexity-Informed Public Sector Strategy Theory (CIPSST) for Nigerian public sector organisations, integrating complexity theory, strategy-as-practice theory, and public administration theory to explain how strategic activity actually occurs, rather than how formal planning prescribes it should occur, in the complex adaptive systems that constitute Nigerian government organisations. The CIPSST is developed through a 3-year multi-site ethnographic research programme in five Nigerian federal government organisations: a regulatory agency, a development finance institution, a federal university, a state health management board, and a federal ministry directorate, representing North West, South West, South East, North Central, and South South zones respectively. Data include 500 hours of participant observation, 120 in-depth interviews, and analysis of 300 strategy documents. Actor-network analysis and narrative strategy analysis are employed alongside grounded theory methods. The CIPSST identifies four original constructs: Institutional Complexity Navigation (the daily micro-practices through which strategic actors manage conflicting institutional demands), Emergent Order Creation (the informal coalition-building and sensemaking activities that produce de facto strategic priorities), Political Turbulence Absorption (the buffering behaviours that insulate core organisational functions from political disruption), and Strategy Translation Loss (the decay of strategic intent as it moves through hierarchical layers and political filters). All four constructs are validated through member-checking with 45 senior public sector informants. The theory provides an original and realistic account of strategic management in Nigerian public sector complexity.

Keywords: public sector strategy, complexity theory, strategy-as-practice, Nigerian government, ethnographic research