An Original Longitudinal Study of Attitudinal Change Toward China Among Nigerian University Students (2018-2023)

Attitudinal research on how Nigerians view China has been predominantly cross-sectional, capturing attitudes at single time points without examining how attitudes change in response to evolving bilateral events, personal experience, and media exposure. This study conducts an original longitudinal analysis of attitudinal change toward China among Nigerian university students over a five-year period from 2018 to 2023, providing the first panel-based evidence on attitude dynamics in a sub-Saharan African population. The study employs a longitudinal panel design with annual data collection from 400 Nigerian university students across six universities representing all geopolitical zones. A comprehensive attitudinal instrument measuring eight dimensions of China attitudes (cultural regard, economic assessment, political concern, bilateral benefit perception, racial experience, media trust, scholarship value, and geopolitical alignment) was administered annually. Random effects panel regression and latent growth curve modelling were used to model attitude trajectories and their determinants. Results reveal distinct trajectory patterns across the study period: cultural and economic attitudes improve with time and Chinese engagement but deteriorate significantly following high-profile negative incidents. Political concern attitudes show a modest long-term increase, particularly following the COVID-19 period. Direct China experience strongly moderates attitude trajectories. Media consumption of Chinese versus Western sources produces divergent but predictable trajectory effects. The study makes an original methodological contribution to the Africa-China attitudes literature by introducing longitudinal panel evidence and provides a foundation for predictive modelling of future public attitude shifts.

Keywords: longitudinal study, China attitudes, Nigerian university students, panel data, attitudinal change