China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Nigeria: A Theoretical Assessment of Infrastructure Diplomacy

Nigeria has been engaged with Belt and Road Initiative frameworks through infrastructure financing, trade facilitation, and energy sector investment since the initiative's declaration in 2013, yet a theoretically coherent assessment of the BRI's operation in the Nigerian context, as distinct from its functioning in other BRI recipient states, is absent from the literature. This study provides a theoretical assessment of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Nigeria, developing an original Nigeria-BRI Analytical Framework that captures the distinctive features of this engagement. The theoretical framework is constructed by integrating infrastructure diplomacy theory, political economy of development finance, and African state theory. The study employs a comprehensive research design combining systematic documentary analysis of all Nigeria-BRI linked agreements and project records from 2013 to 2023, network analysis of BRI-linked institution connections involving Nigerian state and private actors, and fifty expert interviews with Nigerian officials, Chinese diplomatic and business actors, and independent analysts. Original theoretical contributions include a BRI-Africa Differentiation Model distinguishing between core BRI operational logics, which emphasise strategic infrastructure connectivity and Chinese enterprise deployment, and their adaptation in the Nigerian context, which reflects Nigeria's size, oil wealth, and political complexity; a concept of Selective BRI Sovereignty describing Nigeria's strategy of accepting BRI financing while resisting institutional integration requirements that characterise BRI engagement in smaller African states; and an Infrastructure Diplomacy Legitimacy Framework assessing the conditions under which Chinese infrastructure diplomacy achieves durable positive reputational outcomes in Nigeria.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, Nigeria, infrastructure diplomacy, theoretical assessment, BRI Africa