Developing an Original Econometric Model for Measuring the Macroeconomic Contribution of the Cooperative Sector to Nigeria’s GDP

The macroeconomic contribution of Nigeria's cooperative sector to national GDP and economic growth has not been quantified in the peer-reviewed literature using rigorous econometric methods, creating a significant evidence gap that limits advocacy for cooperative sector investment and policy. This study developed an original econometric model for measuring the macroeconomic contribution of Nigeria's cooperative sector to GDP. A macro-level quantitative research design was employed, combining cooperative sector accounts compilation, vector autoregression (VAR) modelling, and Granger causality analysis. Cooperative sector accounts were compiled from state-level cooperative registry data across all 36 states and the FCT for the period 2010 to 2023, covering aggregate cooperative capital, turnover, member employment, and agricultural input procurement. National accounts data from the National Bureau of Statistics provided GDP and sectoral output series. VAR models were estimated to examine bidirectional relationships between cooperative sector capital, turnover, and national agricultural sector output and aggregate GDP growth. An input-output multiplier framework was applied to estimate the direct and indirect GDP contribution of cooperative sector activity. Granger causality tests examined whether cooperative sector growth precedes or follows overall economic growth. Results showed that cooperative sector capital growth Granger-causes agricultural sector output growth (F = 7.4; p < 0.01) with a two-year lag. The multiplier analysis estimated a total cooperative sector GDP contribution of 2.8 trillion naira in 2022, representing 2.1 percent of national GDP. The study provides original econometric evidence for cooperative sector macroeconomic significance in Nigeria. Keywords: cooperative sector GDP contribution, econometric model, macroeconomic analysis, vector autoregression, Nigeria