A Complex Systems Approach to Modelling Information Disorder in Nigeria’s Digital Public Sphere

Information disorder, encompassing misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation, in Nigeria's digital public sphere exhibits emergent, non-linear, and adaptive properties that conventional causal communication models cannot adequately explain. This study applied a complex systems theoretical approach to modelling information disorder dynamics in Nigeria's digital public sphere. The research employed a multi-method complexity-informed methodology. Phase one conducted a systematic mapping of the Nigerian digital information ecosystem, documenting actors, information flows, platform architectures, and interaction patterns through network analysis of Twitter/X data (4.2 million posts over a six-month period), expert interviews with 20 digital verification journalists, and analysis of 600 documented fact-checked false claims from Nigeria's fact-checking organisations. Phase two developed a complex adaptive system model of information disorder dynamics, operationalising four systemic properties: emergence (how false narratives arise from actor interactions without central coordination), self-organisation (how false narrative communities maintain coherence against correction attempts), feedback loops (how correction and amplification dynamics interact to determine false narrative persistence), and adaptive responses (how disinformation actors modify tactics in response to fact-checking interventions). Phase three validated the model through agent-based simulation. Original theoretical contributions include the Rumour Attractors Model, describing how structural features of Nigerian ethnic and religious identity create stable false narrative attractor states resistant to factual correction, and the Verification Countermeasure Adaptation Cycle, theorising how disinformation actors systematically adapt to fact-checking infrastructure. The model provides a novel analytical tool for designing information disorder interventions.

Keywords: information disorder, complex systems, digital public sphere, Nigeria, agent-based modelling