Developing an Original Theory of Conflict Recurrence in Nigerian Ethno-Communal Violence Contexts

Ethno-communal conflicts in Nigeria demonstrate a persistent tendency toward recurrence, with resolved conflicts reigniting within years or decades, and developing an original theory that explains this recurrence dynamic beyond conventional conflict analysis accounts contributes to both criminological and peace-building scholarship. This study developed an original theory of conflict recurrence in Nigerian ethno-communal violence contexts, drawing on comparative analysis of four recurring conflict cycles: Plateau herder-farmer conflicts, Kaduna Christian-Muslim communal violence, Delta Ijaw-Itsekiri conflicts, and North East community-bandit cycles. A multi-case comparative theoretical methodology was employed over 24 months, combining documentary analysis of conflict history records, structured interviews with 48 community leaders, peace-building practitioners, and security researchers with direct field experience across the four conflict sites, and comparative analysis applying social identity theory, conflict trap theory, and transitional justice scholarship. Cross-case analysis identified consistent mechanisms of recurrence not adequately theorised in existing conflict literature: trauma memory activation through social commemoration of prior violence, resource competition restoration failures, justice grievance perpetuation through prosecutorial non-accountability for documented atrocities, and spoiler actor re-mobilisation exploiting peace-agreement implementation gaps. The original Nigerian Conflict Recurrence Mechanism Theory proposes a four-stage recurrence cycle: grievance sedimentation, trigger event amplification, protection force escalation, and settlement fragility. Each stage is specified with specific intervention opportunities for conflict prevention. Expert review by 20 conflict scholars and criminologists confirmed the theory's original contribution to both African conflict theory and practical peace-building.

Keywords: conflict recurrence, ethno-communal violence, Nigeria, original theory, peace-building