Empirical Assessment of Farmer-Herder Conflict Impacts on Farm Output and Income in Plateau State

Farmer-herder conflict is one of the most economically devastating forms of rural violence in Nigeria, with profound consequences for agricultural output, land use patterns, and rural household welfare. In Plateau State, in the North Central geopolitical zone, recurring conflicts between sedentary crop farmers and nomadic herders have resulted in significant farm abandonment, crop destruction, and market disruption. This study empirically assesses the impact of farmer-herder conflict on farm output and income in Plateau State. Difference-in-differences estimation was applied using panel survey data collected from 200 farming households across conflict-affected and matched control communities over two agricultural seasons. Agricultural output loss was measured in value terms, and household income was computed from all farm and non-farm sources. Conflict exposure was measured using a validated incident proximity score derived from community-level conflict event data. Results indicate that conflict-affected communities experienced a 42 percent reduction in crop output value relative to control communities in the post-conflict period. Net farm income in affected communities fell by N98,000 on average, with the largest losses concentrated among households cultivating near grazing corridors. Crop diversification away from long-cycle crops such as yam was documented as an adaptive response. Market participation rates were 30 percent lower in conflict-affected communities due to movement restrictions. The study recommends urgent policy action on formalised grazing reserve demarcation, investment in farmer-herder mediation institutions, and targeted recovery support for conflict-affected farm households in Plateau State. Keywords: farmer-herder conflict, farm output, income loss, Plateau State, difference-in-differences