Effects of Fertiliser Subsidy Policy on Input Use and Rice Yield in Kebbi and Sokoto States

Fertiliser subsidy policies are a central instrument of Nigeria's agricultural input support strategy, aimed at reducing input costs for smallholder farmers and stimulating yield improvements in priority crops. In Kebbi and Sokoto States in the North West geopolitical zone, large-scale irrigated rice production areas are primary beneficiaries of federal fertiliser subsidy programmes, but the empirical effects on actual input use and yield outcomes require rigorous assessment. This study evaluates the effects of the fertiliser subsidy policy on input use intensity and rice yield in Kebbi and Sokoto States using data from a structured survey of 280 rice farmers. A treatment effects model was applied to address selection into subsidy access, using distance to subsidy distribution centres as an identifying instrument. Fertiliser application rates, application timing, and paddy yield were the primary outcome variables. Results indicate that access to subsidised fertiliser increased application rates by an average of 28 kg per hectare and improved paddy yield by 18 percent relative to non-beneficiary farmers. However, only 42 percent of farmers in the target area reported receiving any subsidised fertiliser in the most recent season, indicating significant distribution leakage and coverage gaps. Elite capture at the distribution stage was cited by focus group participants as a recurring governance challenge. Counterfactual simulations suggest full coverage would generate yield gains of 31 percent. The study recommends strengthening beneficiary targeting through biometric registration and community validation committees to reduce leakage in the subsidy distribution system. Keywords: fertiliser subsidy, rice yield, input use, Kebbi State, agricultural policy