Analysing the Impact of Climate Variability on Groundnut Yield and Farmer Adaptation in Katsina State

Climate variability represents one of the most significant and growing threats to agricultural productivity in Nigeria's semi-arid North West geopolitical zone, where groundnut farming is a central income and nutrition source for rural households. In Katsina State, changing onset dates of the rainy season, erratic rainfall distribution, and increasing temperature extremes are altering growing conditions in ways that demand systematic empirical documentation. This study analyses the impact of climate variability on groundnut yield and evaluates farmer adaptation strategies in Katsina State. Rainfall and temperature data from four meteorological stations over a 2014 to 2024 period were analysed alongside a panel survey of 230 groundnut farming households across five local government areas. Yield-climate relationships were modelled using a panel data fixed effects regression controlling for household-level management practices. Adaptation strategy adoption was assessed using a multivariate probit framework. Results indicate that a one standard deviation reduction in seasonal rainfall was associated with a 17 percent decrease in groundnut yield, and each one-degree Celsius increase in maximum temperature during the pod-filling stage reduced yields by 9 percent. Adaptation strategies adopted by more than 50 percent of farmers include crop variety switching, planting date adjustment, and intensified soil moisture conservation through tied ridging. However, climate-resilient groundnut variety access was limited to 28 percent of the sample. The study recommends accelerating the release and distribution of climate-resilient groundnut varieties through the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics partnership with Katsina State. Keywords: climate variability, groundnut yield, adaptation strategies, Katsina State, panel data