Government Expenditure and Human Development Outcomes in Nigeria’s North West Zone

The relationship between government expenditure and human development outcomes is a central concern of development finance, with particular relevance for Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone, which consistently records some of the country's lowest education, health, and welfare indicators. This study examines how state and federal government expenditure on social sectors correlates with human development outcomes in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, and Kaduna States. Secondary data are sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Budget Office of the Federation, state budgets, and the National Human Development Index reports for the period 2015 to 2023. The study employs panel regression to estimate the expenditure-development elasticity for education spending, health spending, and social protection transfers. The theoretical framework draws on the public expenditure management literature, the social investment theory of development finance, and the absorptive capacity constraint framework that explains why increased expenditure does not always translate into improved outcomes. The analysis evaluates whether the Education sector allocation, the Basic Health Care Provision Fund, and conditional cash transfer programmes have produced measurable improvements in literacy rates, child mortality, and poverty headcount ratios in the zone. Existing literature from comparable sub-Saharan African contexts highlights weak expenditure-outcome linkages driven by corruption, procurement inefficiency, and weak public service delivery systems. Findings are intended for the North West state governments, the Federal Ministry of Finance, and multilateral development partners including the World Bank and UNICEF. Keywords: government expenditure, human development, North West Nigeria, social spending, public finance