Population Growth and Urban Sprawl in Ibadan: A Spatial Analysis of Peri-Urban Transformation

Ibadan, the largest city by land area in West Africa, continues to experience rapid population growth that is translating into persistent outward urban sprawl into its peri-urban fringe. This study analyses the spatial dynamics of urban growth and associated land transformations in Ibadan's peripheral zones between 2012 and 2023, with a focus on the Oluyole, Lagelu, and Egbeda local government areas of Oyo State in the South West geopolitical zone. Landsat 8 multispectral imagery was classified using object-based image analysis to distinguish urban, agricultural, forest, and wetland land cover types across six time points. Landscape fragmentation indices, including patch density, edge density, and aggregation index, were computed in FRAGSTATS to characterise sprawl patterns. Population data from the National Population Commission and ward-level enumeration estimates were overlaid on the growth maps to associate demographic pressure with spatial expansion vectors. Results confirm that built-up area grew by 31 percent in the study zone, with the sharpest expansion occurring along the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway corridor following the completion of its reconstruction in 2021. Peri-urban agricultural land is being rapidly converted to low-density residential use by estate developers catering to Ibadan's expanding middle-income population. The study recommends the adoption of growth boundary planning regulations and the densification of underutilised inner-city land as alternatives to further peripheral expansion. Keywords: urban sprawl, Ibadan, peri-urban, land use change, South West Nigeria.