Geospatial Analysis of Market Accessibility and Trade Flows in Ogun State

Market access and trade connectivity are fundamental determinants of smallholder agricultural income and rural economic development, yet the spatial distribution of markets and road infrastructure in Ogun State's rural hinterland creates uneven access conditions across the South West geopolitical zone. This study analyses market accessibility and inter-market trade flows in 45 rural markets across Ogun State using GIS-based network analysis, complemented by commodity flow surveys and market trader interviews. Market locations were georeferenced, and their catchment populations were estimated using Thiessen polygon delineation and road distance calculations from settlement nodes to each market. A gravity model of inter-market trade intensity was calibrated using surveyed commodity volume data from questionnaires administered to 320 traders across 18 selected markets in Ijebu East, Ikenne, Obafemi Owode, and Yewa South local government areas. Results identify significant spatial clustering of market accessibility deficits in Yewa South and Obafemi Owode, where road network density is lowest and inter-market distances longest, reducing smallholder participation in regional commodity chains for cassava, palm oil, and vegetables. The gravity model confirms that road distance is the single most powerful deterrent to trade flow intensity, with each additional 10 kilometres reducing modelled trade volume by approximately 23 percent. The study recommends strategic rural road investments targeting high-potential agricultural corridors and the promotion of periodic satellite market establishment in underserved zones. Keywords: market accessibility, trade flows, Ogun State, rural economy, South West Nigeria.